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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't by Nate Silver

My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Eh, underwhelmed. A survey of prediction and predictive tools, starting with failures and moving on to successes. Nothing particularly new or interesting here, and I think Silver knew it. It’s not like the premise that the strength of a prediction depends on the accuracy of the data is revelatory or anything. A lot of survey nonfiction like this can be saved with interesting collateral content. This book tours over a dozen topics, but I didn’t find much new or compelling or even particularly complex in the subjects I know something about (the efficient market hypothesis, political polling, the spread of infectious disease), and more damningly I was never engaged by his writing on subjects I don’t know much about (the weather, sports betting, baseball. Oh my God, so much baseball.)

I guess what I’m saying here is that the book format reveals all of Silver’s weaknesses as a writer, and there are many. The nicest thing you can say is that when he’s really on a role, he’s workmanlike. And that’s okay! He doesn’t have to write brilliantly, he can just keep doing statistical modeling. (Better him than me – I disliked stats so much, it doesn't actually qualify as math in my head.) Just, turns out I prefer him doing stats in 1000 word articles and in person, where he comes across much better.

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